It doesn’t jump off the page, but he focused more on a single hot spot rather than dividing his swings evenly across multiple zones: He accomplished a rare trick: he swung more at pitches over the heart of the plate, finally getting to above average there after his earlier timidity, while swinging less at pitches on the edges and outside of the strike zone. Here’s another swinging strike on a breaking pitch, this one a slider from Bluefield righthander Brady Dragmire: This is a well-located two-strike offering, and Rosario again fails to stay consistent with his mechanics, stepping slightly in the bucket and relying on that shoulder drop to get his bat to the outside corner. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Rosario stood three feet closer to home plate in 2019 than he did in his previous two seasons. Website admin will know that you reported it. He’s swinging more at good pitches, less at bad pitches, and reaping the rewards. At worst, he’s probably an average defensive third baseman, which would still give him a slightly positive FanGraphs Defense number. He gave some of that back in lost value moving right, as he had less time to react, but it seems that the Mets are thinking about this the right way. He walked only 4.2% of the time while striking out 22% of the time, both worse than he’d performed in any full minor league season. If he instead replicated his 2019 season, he could be 2% below average and still have the total package work out. Gift a Membership. FanGraphs does not have a paywall. Ben is a contributor to FanGraphs. You can see from the video that Rosario is not without range, and he has a playable arm. Okay, three fielding plays and seven plate appearances isn’t exactly the most complete visual evidence, but it’s a starting point, and there’s quite a bit that can be gleaned from this. He was all fast-twitch muscles and gorgeous defense. If he can be more consistent in his posture and cut out the shoulder movement, his bat speed should play more consistently and make him above-average in both contact and power. In fact, it projected him to be worse in both 2017 and 2018 than he actually was. by Retrosheet. It’s obviously very tough to do anything with inside pitches from this position, and when Rosario dips his shoulder like this, he’s cutting off a lot of the advantages that his quick hands give him. He was the youngest position player to open the year at the Rookie-Advanced level, which says a lot about how advanced he is for his age, even if the numbers he posted (.241/.279/.358 with a 43/11 K/BB, 3 HR, 2 SB, and a .941 fielding percentage in 58 games) veer closer to “problematic” than “exciting.”. Statcast’s OAA pegged him as the worst defensive shortstop in baseball. He swung at 42% of pitches outside of the zone, the sixth-highest chase rate in the bigs. Simmons is a great example, but also Swanson, Galvis, Segura, Semien, Gregorius, Baez, Crawford, Ahmed, Marte, and others. It’s simply par for the course for a talented young player who was so good in the minor leagues that he burst onto the scene at a precocious age. A .295 wOBA doesn’t exactly scream “impact player” regardless of position, especially for fantasy purposes. He also struck out just 19% of the time, a testament to his advanced ability to make contact. That’s a big move — he went from roughly average to being the third-closest regular shortstop, with only Corey Seager and Adalberto Mondesi standing closer on average. As I stated earlier, he’s not a total hacker at the plate, but his pitch recognition skills aren’t all that refined yet, and so he occasionally can have head-scratching sequences like this. In sum, Rosario is a player who already shows a diverse skillset. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Take a look at any Mets prospect list from 2017 and Amed Rosario was the headliner. All minor league baseball data provided by Major League Baseball Advanced Media by Handedness. It would be helpful to know what “refinement to contact skills” looks likes. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. He’ll be four years younger than the average major leaguer, which continues a theme; the only time in his entire pro career where he’s been less than three years younger than the league average was High-A St. Lucie in 2016, and he hit .309/.359/.442 there in 290 PA before the Mets promoted him to Double-A. Take a look at any Mets prospect list from 2017 and Amed Rosario was the headliner. Rosario should already be a target for deep-league dynasty owners looking to jump on the best of the newest crop of international prospect, and he’s still a player to track for those in shallower prospect formats, as he’s a definite 2014 breakout candidate. All minor league baseball data provided by Major League Baseball Advanced Media Amed Rosario NYM SS R $5: July 29, 2020 12:11 AM : Hamel Toes: Brendan McKay TBR SP L $5 DTD: Pete LaCock Goes Deep: Amed Rosario NYM SS R $3 Tarik Skubal DET SP L $3: July 24, 2020 2:03 PM : Cespedes' Opted-Out Ankles: Paul Dejong STL SS R $8: Cuckmires Amed Rosario NYM SS R $9 Brian Anderson MIA 3B/OF R $6: June 23, 2020 9:04 PM : TBD But narrowing focus is a good way to get more swings at the places where you feel most comfortable. But even looking back not that far, lots of guys that moved forward quickly based on strong defense and offensive promise took time to get established. Pitchers knocked the bat out of his hands; he hit for a .129 ISO despite 12 triples. And please don't worry, your report will be anonymous. His 100 wRC+ doesn’t look like a one-off; he got through there by doing many little things right rather than with one huge fluky improvement. Support FanGraphs. For that, we have to turn to visual evidence. It sees continued gradual improvement this year as well, taking 2019 with a grain of salt, but that projected line still works out to a 96 wRC+, which would make him an above-average regular at shortstop. Just three of his 34 flyouts were caught by left fielders, as well. This analysis is at risk of becoming more or less number soup, so here’s the bottom line: Rosario’s plate discipline improved from 2018 to 2019, which gave him a nice base to work from. While it’s too early to say that he’ll definitively stick at shortstop–so much of that depends on how his body evolves–it’s safe to say that Rosario will have some defensive value. He cleaned up his defense — depending on which metric you prefer, he got better by six runs (DRS), 4.4 runs (UZR), or four outs (OAA). Avg Salary All Leagues $6.89 Last 10 adds $3.70 FanGraphs Points $6.01 Last 10 adds $3.80. The problem, of course, is that Tim Mayza’s pitch here is a fastball that starts on the outside corner and tails off of it, rendering the pull-oriented path of Rosario’s swing dramatically misguided. Rosario’s offense, like his defense, benefited from a change in approach. We saw him as a 65 FV prospect, the third-best in all of baseball. That probably feels like a story of redemption to Mets fans, who have been waiting for this breakout since Matt Harvey was still a going concern. Gift a Membership. If he replicated his 2018 season in non-contact events every year (excluding intentional walks), he’d need almost exactly average production on contact to be an average hitter overall. Admins may or may not choose to remove the comment or block the author. On the flip side, there’s a lot for him to work on, but it’s all just a matter of slowing the game down, refining, and gaining consistency rather than innate athletic deficiencies, and he has a lot of time to smooth out those rough edges, to say the least. Maybe the story wasn’t that Rosario struggled to start his career — on offense, at least.

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